Average N.F.L. value by round

When the Kansas City Chiefs make the first pick in the N.F.L. draft on Thursday night, that player is likely to give them what they are after: seasons as a starter and, if things go well, a handful of Pro Bowls. With notable exceptions, the first overall pick has, on average, proved to be the most productive player in the class. Nearly two-thirds of the most productive players drafted since 1995 were selected in the first round. But as the draft progresses, chance plays an increasingly significant role. While many of the picks in the later rounds are destined for the practice squad, there are still gems to be found there.

When the 10 ‘Best’ Players Were Drafted Each Year

“Best” players are based on number of starts, Pro Bowls and other factors. Compensation is not a factor.

Select threshold

About 62 percent of the top-performing N.F.L. players were taken in the first round.

Chance plays a role, too, especially in later rounds; about 38 percent of top-performing players were taken after the first round.

Top Players by Round, 1995-2012

1st round

Peyton Manning

1st over all, 1998

2nd round

Drew Brees

32nd pick, 2001

3rd round

Terrell Owens

89th pick, 1996

4th round

Jared Allen

126th pick, 2004

5th round

Zach Thomas

154th pick, 1996

6th round

Tom Brady

199th pick, 2000

7th round

Donald Driver

213th pick, 1999

So how do Pro Bowl-caliber players go undetected until late in the draft? In part, it's because assessing college players' N.F.L. potential is very difficult. Collegiate success is no guarantee in the N.F.L.; offensive and defensive schemes vary widely; and, unlike in baseball or basketball, there are relatively few games in a college season, which means there are fewer observable events for scouts. Financial considerations play a role too, since teams invest more money in earlier picks. What this adds up to is uncertainty, especially after the first round. Some early picks turn out to be duds (Ryan Leaf or JaMarcus Russell, anyone?), while Brady, Terrell Davis and other Pro Bowlers wait until the sixth round. Brady may be the best sixth round pick in N.F.L. history, but there are more than a dozen Pro Bowlers who were picked later than he was. Chances are the 2013 will have a few, too.